Lung disease endemic for the future.....

A recent study carried out by the Harvard School for Public Health has predicted that 80 million chinese people will die of lung disease in the next 25 years. The study is to last 30 years and the first 5 years of the project has seen drastic predictions.

This is not the only indication that lung disease may become China's future problem. It is reported that 1 in 3 cigarettes are smoked in China and Dr Sarah England, who is the technical director of the World Health Organisation for combating tobacco related problems, has said 1 million chinese people will die every year from tobacco related illnesses. The tobacco problem seems to have deeper roots in chinese society with over 40% of doctors smoking and over 45% of them smoke in front of patients. This suggests that China has failed to even notice a tobacco problem amongst its people.

However, tobacco isn't the only source of lung disease in China since the problem is also created by the use of solid fuels like wood being used for cooking and heating. It is reported that 70% of households use such fuels and this is contributing to the problem.

The drastic predictions has seen the growth of solutions, which might become significant in China's future character. Prof. Majid Ezzati has suggested the development of air circular stoves and better chimneys across China. In addition, the tobacco issue could be tackled through taxation, more health education, and advertising more bans.

Michael R. Bloomberg and Bill Gates have put up $500 million toward an anti-smoking campaign targeting the 15 countries with the worst tobacco problems, including China, India and Indonesia. It will use a comprehensive strategy focused on raising tobacco taxes; banning tobacco ads and promotion; limiting secondhand smoke; educating people about tobacco's hazards; and helping smokers quit.

In conclusion, one can see that the figures are astonishing and strongly suggest that lung disease may become endemic in the future. Although, the study and various other reports are likely to increase awareness of the problem but the key uncertainty lies as to what extent and this will determine whether it will be an endemic or not.